Estimated water activity
The orientative water activity (aw) range shown with every filling, including its confidence level, preservation potential and contributing factors.
What it is
The Estimated water activity is an orientative aw range that AreaCacao computes for every filling from its formulation, nutritional composition and an inference of the solutes present. Water activity measures the free water available in the product: it is the physicochemical factor that most strongly drives microbial growth and therefore shelf stability.
Unlike a lab measurement, this estimate is deterministic and orientative: it consumes no AI credits and is always expressed as a range with a confidence level, never as an exact number nor as a shelf-life promise.
Where it appears
- On the Filling formulator result screen, right below the physicochemical balance, as a card with the range, confidence and preservation potential.
- On the Validation tab of any saved recipe (reciview), as a compact block under the score.
In both places you can open View factors / View aw breakdown for the full analysis.
What it shows
- aw range — e.g.
0.83–0.98. It is deliberately a range (not a point) because it builds on inferred data. The narrower it is, the more reliable. - Confidence level — High, Medium or Low confidence, depending on the quality of the available data (ingredient water, sugar profile, process data).
- Preservation potential — a qualitative band (very low · low · medium · high · very high) that translates the aw range into relative free-water risk.
- Factors that influence aw — which solutes and components push aw up (↑ aw, e.g. a fruit purée) or down (↓ aw, e.g. sucrose, glucose, sorbitol), with their relative magnitude.
If the recipe has an instrument-measured aw, it is shown labelled as measured aw and takes priority over the estimate.
How to read it
- Use it as a technical signal to compare iterations: lower the free water or raise the sugars and watch the range move. It's ideal for iterating before you produce.
- A low or very low preservation potential indicates a moist filling (typical of fruit ganaches and caramels): it usually needs refrigeration, humectants and a short shelf life.
- A high, narrow range with high confidence lets you trust the reading more; a wide range or low confidence means data is missing — treat it only as an approximation.
Supported families
The estimate is available for ganache, truffle, caramel, pâte de fruit and praliné / gianduja. For other types you'll see the "Not yet available for this type" message.
Warnings you may see
The breakdown transparently flags when a value has been inferred rather than read from the ingredient record. For example:
- The glucose syrup (DE) profile has been inferred.
- The fruit sugar profile has been inferred.
- Coating sugar availability has been inferred by category.
- °Brix or final weight is missing; for cooked recipes the range is wider.
- Actual aw must be measured in the finished product to validate shelf life.
These warnings aren't errors: they explain why the range is wide and which data would narrow it.
What it is NOT
- It is not a measurement. It's a deterministic physicochemical model (multi-solute Norrish equation) over partially inferred data.
- It promises neither shelf life nor food safety. To validate safety, shelf life, technical labelling or commercial production, make the recipe and measure aw with a water-activity meter.
- It is not an exact number. It's always a range with confidence.
How to improve accuracy
Add the data the model is inferring: the purée °Brix, the syrups' DE profile, the process water loss (for cooked recipes), the actual pH and, above all, a batch aw measurement for calibration.